The Government Actuary’s Department has published its 2026 Up-rating Report, projecting income and expenditure for the Great Britain National Insurance Fund through 2030/31. Under central assumptions, contribution income is expected to exceed benefit spending each year, with the Fund’s balance rising and no Treasury Grant required over the period. The projections assume no further changes beyond measures announced at the Autumn Budget on 26 November 2025. ([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/up-rating-report-2026-report-on-the-national-insurance-fund))
For 2026/27, GAD estimates total Fund income at £173.6 billion and expenditure at £161.6 billion, implying a £12.0 billion excess of receipts over payments and a projected year‑end balance of £101.6 billion on 31 March 2027. That balance is around 64% of estimated annual benefit payments-well above the recommended minimum of one‑sixth-and Treasury Grants are not expected. The last grant was in 2015/16. ([assets.publishing.service.gov.uk](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69666e391f94f51fd079cbbc/E03471795_Un_Act_GAD_NIF_Uprating_Report_Jan26_Web_Accessible.pdf))
The report confirms April 2026 up-rating of contributory benefits. The basic State Pension would increase from £176.45 to £184.90 per week and the full new State Pension from £230.25 to £241.30 per week. This 4.8% rise follows the Triple Lock, with Average Weekly Earnings in May–July 2025 providing the highest component. ([assets.publishing.service.gov.uk](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69666e391f94f51fd079cbbc/E03471795_Un_Act_GAD_NIF_Uprating_Report_Jan26_Web_Accessible.pdf))
Contribution parameters change only at the margins this April. The Lower Earnings Limit increases from £125 to £129 a week, while the Primary Threshold (£242), Secondary Threshold (£96) and Upper Earnings Limit (£967) are unchanged; main NIC rates remain 8% for employees (2% above the UEL) and 15% for employers. Employer NICs relief at a zero rate for armed forces veterans is extended to 5 April 2028. ([assets.publishing.service.gov.uk](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69666e391f94f51fd079cbbc/E03471795_Un_Act_GAD_NIF_Uprating_Report_Jan26_Web_Accessible.pdf))
Autumn Budget 2025 measures reflected in the projections include freezing most NIC limits and thresholds until April 2031, limiting NIC relief on salary‑sacrifice pension contributions to the first £2,000 per employee from 6 April 2029, and removing access to Class 2 voluntary NICs from abroad while tightening Class 3 conditions for those abroad from 6 April 2026. ([assets.publishing.service.gov.uk](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69666e391f94f51fd079cbbc/E03471795_Un_Act_GAD_NIF_Uprating_Report_Jan26_Web_Accessible.pdf))
GAD estimates these policy changes will raise Fund income by around £0.4 billion in 2028/29, £3.7 billion in 2029/30 and £4.3 billion in 2030/31. Around four‑fifths of total NICs flow to the Fund, with the remainder allocated to the NHS. ([assets.publishing.service.gov.uk](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69666e391f94f51fd079cbbc/E03471795_Un_Act_GAD_NIF_Uprating_Report_Jan26_Web_Accessible.pdf))
Modelling is anchored to ONS 2022‑based population projections (migration‑variant) and the OBR’s November 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook assumptions. The projection period also captures the legislated State Pension age increase from 66 to 67 between 2026 and 2028, which partially offsets demographic pressures. ([assets.publishing.service.gov.uk](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69666e391f94f51fd079cbbc/E03471795_Un_Act_GAD_NIF_Uprating_Report_Jan26_Web_Accessible.pdf))
Sensitivity testing shows the Fund is vulnerable where earnings growth is weaker and inflation higher-conditions that curb contributions while increasing Triple Lock‑linked expenditure. Across six variants, the 2030/31 Fund balance ranges from £126.4 billion (68% of benefit payments) to £182.6 billion (97%), compared with £163.7 billion (89%) in the principal case. ([assets.publishing.service.gov.uk](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69666e391f94f51fd079cbbc/E03471795_Un_Act_GAD_NIF_Uprating_Report_Jan26_Web_Accessible.pdf))
Short‑term sustainability contrasts with the longer‑term outlook. The 2020 Quinquennial Review projected eventual Fund exhaustion within its horizon; the next review, effective 1 April 2025, will update long‑range estimates. In parallel, the third State Pension age review and the government’s Pensions Commission are considering system design and affordability. ([assets.publishing.service.gov.uk](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69666e391f94f51fd079cbbc/E03471795_Un_Act_GAD_NIF_Uprating_Report_Jan26_Web_Accessible.pdf))
For employers and payroll teams, the immediate operational impact for April 2026 is limited. With thresholds largely frozen aside from the Lower Earnings Limit and rates unchanged, system updates should be minimal. GAD also notes that changes to the LEL and Small Profits Threshold are not expected to raise Fund income in 2026/27. ([assets.publishing.service.gov.uk](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69666e391f94f51fd079cbbc/E03471795_Un_Act_GAD_NIF_Uprating_Report_Jan26_Web_Accessible.pdf))