Aviation flows through the Gulf have been reshaped since 28 February 2026, when US–Israeli strikes on Iran triggered rapid airspace closures across Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Israel, with the UAE announcing a temporary, partial shutdown. Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha-normally among the world’s most reliable connectors-suspended most operations as hundreds of thousands of passengers were stranded. Flight-tracking and official statements confirmed a near standstill above the UAE in the first hours. (apnews.com)
Limited flying resumed within days as evacuation and relief services were prioritised, but schedules remain pared back and vulnerable to renewed missile and drone activity. Qatar’s Civil Aviation Authority reopened part of its airspace on 6 March for designated evacuations and cargo movements only, underlining that restrictions remain fluid and administrative. (aljazeera.com)
Disruption has been extensive. As at the early phase of the crisis, Cirium recorded more than 1,800 cancellations in a single day, with around 13,000 of roughly 32,000 flights to and from the Middle East cancelled over the first 72 hours. Subsequent tallies indicated up to 40,000 cancellations between 28 February and 9 March as operators recut programmes. (apnews.com)
The chokepoint factor is fuel. Industry analysts report a de facto closure and severe restriction of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor that normally carries a large share of refined products. Argus and BNEF note that over half of Europe’s imported jet fuel typically transits Hormuz, while IATA estimates put the Gulf contribution to European jet at roughly 25–30 percent-either way a material exposure. (argusmedia.com)
Prices have reacted accordingly. Northwest Europe jet benchmarks hit record premiums over crude and attained levels close to double pre‑war pricing, reflecting acute tightness. Market services also recorded all‑time highs in outright jet prices as buyers scrambled for alternative barrels. (argusmedia.com)
For the Gulf hubs, the timing compounds the shock. Dubai International processed a record 92.3 million passengers in 2024 and 95.2 million in 2025, reaffirming its position as the busiest airport for international travel. Those volumes depend on uninterrupted connecting banks and predictable routings-both now under stress. (apnews.com)
The model at stake is the region’s long‑haul ‘super‑connector’ proposition: one‑stop to almost anywhere. Transfer traffic accounted for about 47 percent of Dubai’s flow, 51 percent at Abu Dhabi and 74 percent at Doha, according to OAG’s 2025 analysis. Geography, fleet mix and timed banks make it work-until regulatory closures and route restrictions break the sequence. (oag.com)
Airlines have been adjusting within regulatory limits. Emirates and Etihad mounted limited services to move citizens and residents; Qantas added a Singapore refuelling stop to its Perth–London service to avoid closed airspace and payload constraints; European groups bolstered direct Asia capacity to provide alternatives to Gulf routings. (apnews.com)
Governments have also intervened. The UK chartered repatriation flights from Muscat and opened registration portals for nationals; the US State Department advised citizens on 3 March to leave a wide list of regional countries via any available commercial means; EU leaders, for their part, have explored options to secure freedom of navigation in Hormuz. (itv.com)
Insurance and compliance risks have risen in parallel. London market guidance widened designated high‑risk areas in the Gulf and war‑risk premiums surged, a cost that filters through to airline and shipper decisions and, ultimately, to fares and cargo rates. (insurancejournal.com)
Capacity substitution has limits. Middle East carriers account for roughly 9.5 percent of global passenger traffic by RPKs; while Asian and European hubs can absorb some flows, IATA and airline statements point to a period of constrained capacity and higher operating costs until airspace normalises and fuel supply chains stabilise. (iata.org)
Near‑term implications are clear for policy and operations. Civil aviation authorities will continue to issue rolling notices that dictate routings and airport availability; energy market stabilisation depends on restoring safe Hormuz transits; and travel advisories and evacuation frameworks remain active. For carriers, expect conservative schedules, selective reinstatement of bank structures and continued price pressure from jet fuel and insurance until risks recede. (aljazeera.com)