England’s drought position has improved after an exceptionally wet November, but the winter remains decisive. Meeting on 8 December, the National Drought Group reported that higher rainfall is starting to lift rivers, soils and reservoirs, while asking sectors to plan for a dry start to 2026 if average winter rain does not arrive. England received 149% of the long‑term average rainfall in November.
Regional conditions continue to diverge. The East and West Midlands have moved from drought to recovery after 21 weeks, the North West has returned to normal, the North East has shifted into recovery, and parts of Sussex in South East Water’s area remain in drought. Public water supply reservoirs stood at 79.8% of capacity on 2 December, close to the seasonal benchmark of around 82%.
Met Office provisional statistics indicate a markedly wet autumn, especially in northern England, where rainfall was 45% above average; the UK total for autumn exceeded spring and summer combined. November alone delivered well above‑average rain, although soils in the south‑east remain comparatively dry for the season.
Regulators are leaning on new science to inform decisions. The Environment Agency is working with The Alan Turing Institute on river‑flow modelling to detect early drought signals, alongside a programme to pool data and methods across agencies and water companies. This builds on the Agency’s major review of drought science to strengthen forecasting and operational response.
The outlook for 2026 is scenario‑based. The Environment Agency’s Drought Prospects report concludes that with average winter rainfall, most regions should return to normal or recovery by spring; an 80%‑of‑average ‘dry winter’ would leave a broad swathe from Dorset to East Yorkshire in drought by March; and a 60% ‘very dry’ winter would see drought across all of England, with restrictions likely.
Expectations on water companies are explicit. Firms are asked to sustain burst‑repair rates through winter, keep demand down and act strictly in line with their approved drought plans. The Environment Agency’s 2025 drought plan guideline requires companies to be ‘application ready’ for drought permits, including pre‑application discussions at least two weeks before submission; Ofwat remains a statutory consultee on draft drought plans.
Leakage remains a material pressure on resources. The latest Environment Agency performance analysis estimates about 19% of water put into supply is lost before it reaches properties, alongside an industry commitment to halve leakage by 2050 compared with 2017–18 levels. Regulators expect acceleration of smart metering and sustained repair programmes through 2025–26.
Abstractors are being asked to prepare early. Farmers are advised to check that licences cover 2026 needs, refill winter storage and contact the Environment Agency promptly where flexibility may be required. Under RPS 300, the Agency will not normally take enforcement action if floodwater is abstracted outside licence conditions during a ‘flood warning’ event, subject to strict criteria and notification; the NFU provides practical guidance on using the provision.
Demand‑side policy is moving in tandem. Government is consulting on tightening Building Regulations Part G for new homes, with options to reduce the minimum standard from 125 to 105 litres per person per day; responses close on 16 December 2025. The Environmental Improvement Plan 2025 also commits to mandatory water‑efficiency labelling in 2026 and to reducing average household use to 122 litres per person per day by 2038.
Supply‑side schemes are being accelerated. Ministers have taken planning control to fast‑track the first major reservoirs in more than three decades, with a wider programme of nine new reservoirs signalled for delivery by 2050. An updated national policy statement now links need to approved water resources management plans, aiming to shorten examinations for development consent.
For 2026 planning, the operational window is the remainder of winter. The Drought Prospects report indicates that sustained average rainfall is needed until the end of March for full recovery in some areas. Utilities and regulators should keep leakage and burst repairs at pace through any freeze–thaw, maintain clear communications on restrictions where required, and ensure permit applications are ready if storage and flows stall.