HM Treasury and the Cabinet Office’s Evaluation Task Force have published a round-up of projects funded by the Labour Markets Evaluation and Pilots (LMEP) Fund, announced at Spring Budget 2023 to improve the evidence on what works to raise participation and earnings. Three competitive bidding rounds financed trials and evaluations across departments, with results feeding into live policy on childcare, health and employment support.
Childcare features prominently. HMRC has completed a mixed‑methods study on Tax‑Free Childcare to assess effects on working hours and retention, with publication scheduled for November 2025, alongside a large-scale data linkage using PAYE, Self Assessment and Child Benefit to estimate impacts on mothers’ earnings and timing of return to work in support of the early years expansion. Complementing this, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Ofsted have released interactive tools mapping “childcare deserts” and changes in access since 2020, giving councils and providers a neighbourhood‑level view of unmet need.
Health-and-work linkages are a major strand in the ONS portfolio. Population‑level analysis finds that women diagnosed with endometriosis experienced a statistically significant fall in monthly earnings and a 2.7 percentage point reduction in the probability of being a paid employee one to five years after diagnosis. A separate bulletin reports sustained earnings losses for parents following adverse pregnancy events, with average five‑year losses ranging from £3,511 after a missed miscarriage to £13,581 after a stillbirth. These estimates quantify the long‑run labour market effects and can inform earlier diagnosis, treatment and workplace support.
Other ONS work points to modest but persistent gains from mental health treatment. Completing NHS Talking Therapies increased the probability of being a paid employee by up to 1.5 percentage points seven years after starting treatment, with a maximum average pay increase of £17 per month two years after completion; effects were larger for those unemployed at referral. Evidence on physical health interventions shows bariatric surgery is associated with sustained increases in pay over five years, driven mainly by more people entering work.
Cardiovascular disease is also in scope. ONS has linked major adverse cardiovascular events (for example, stroke and myocardial infarction) to subsequent earnings and employment to estimate labour market effects and the potential role of NHS Health Checks, with findings due in 2025. Related ONS datasets on conditions requiring hospital admission and subsequent earnings, employment and benefits receipt were updated over the summer to support ongoing analysis.
Employer practice trials led by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) indicate that simple signalling alone may not shift applicant behaviour. On Indeed’s platform, adding a ‘flexible schedule’ badge to sponsored adverts slightly increased views but did not deliver a statistically significant rise in applications. A parallel trial mailing information on flexible working rights and offering optional personalised career support to recent parents produced no measurable effect on labour market re‑entry at six months, although uptake and satisfaction with the support sessions were high.
For small employers, a DBT‑commissioned trial of one to two days of tailored HR support pivoted to an implementation and process evaluation after low take‑up. Interviews suggested the short, targeted support helped firms formalise policies, improve hiring practice and stay compliant with employment law; however, more entrenched recruitment issues required longer‑term support. These findings will shape future SME support design.
On welfare-to-work, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and the West Midlands Combined Authority tested rent simplification and temporary top‑ups for 18–24‑year‑olds in supported housing. Low take‑up prevented robust quantitative evaluation and interviews suggested the scale and duration of support may have limited impact. Separately, ten Jobs Plus pilots went live from summer 2024, offering on‑site employment support and community engagement; implementation findings are due, with first impact results in spring 2026.
The childcare market evidence base has been expanded with hyperlocal accessibility measures across 180,000 neighbourhoods in England. The ONS tool and Ofsted’s interactive visual help commissioners identify where access has been persistently low and monitor change since 2020, supporting decisions on provider recruitment, capital funding and transport planning.
On digital skills, the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology’s Flexible AI Upskilling Fund pilot-designed to match‑fund AI training in Professional and Business Services SMEs-saw lower‑than‑expected demand, with 327 successful applications. Ipsos’ process evaluation highlights the need to raise awareness among eligible firms and offer clearer guidance on course selection; the matched‑funding model encouraged investment where finance allowed. Impact evaluation continues to 2027.
Outcomes‑based commissioning was assessed through the Kirklees Better Outcomes Partnership. Government Outcomes Lab analysis for DWP and DCMS found programme participants were around 3% more likely to sustain or enter work within six months than matched comparators, with sustained non‑receipt of Universal Credit’s Housing Element up to 18 months and lower cost per outcome than traditional services. DWP has also published a systematic evidence review on what works for disadvantaged groups, to inform tailored services across departments.
Further evaluations in the pipeline include ONS work on musculoskeletal conditions and orthopaedic surgery outcomes, and MHCLG’s STEP Ukraine programme, which provided remote English tuition and employment support to 7,805 participants; results are expected in early 2026. In Northern Ireland, the JobStart 50+ pilot supported 180 economically inactive people into six‑month roles with wage and on‑costs reimbursed; an independent evaluation has concluded.
The Cabinet Office has concluded three studies on workforce capability. A systematic review confirms a positive relationship between skills and productivity-especially in higher‑skilled sectors and workplaces with strong management and innovation cultures-while a companion review codifies features of effective professional development in the Civil Service and offers a taxonomy to guide future learning design.
The Digital Excellence Programme (DEP) pilot for senior civil servants has now reported. The randomised controlled trial found positive effects on behaviours and attitudes across modules on data, digital and AI confidence, but not on a new self‑reported productivity measure; the Cabinet Office added the final report and executive summary on 24 October 2025. These findings will inform the feasibility of future experimental evaluations of training.
Methodologically, DWP is re‑analysing past randomised trials using quasi‑experimental techniques to test the robustness of non‑experimental methods widely used in previous large programmes. Strengthening causal inference where randomisation is not feasible is central to improving the reliability of future evaluations.
Taken together, the LMEP portfolio gives departments usable evidence for near‑term decisions on childcare expansion, health‑related economic inactivity and employer practice. Forthcoming releases include HMRC’s Tax‑Free Childcare survey results in November 2025 and an ONS publication on bariatric surgery and diabetes prevention in December 2025, followed by STEP Ukraine findings in early 2026 and the DSIT AI fund’s impact evaluation in 2027.