Westminster Policy News & Legislative Analysis

Johannesburg G20: Allies say US Ukraine peace plan needs work

European and other allied leaders used the G20 summit in Johannesburg on 22 November to issue a coordinated response to Washington’s 28‑point proposal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. In a joint statement signed by the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Finland, Japan, Canada, Norway and two senior EU officials, they called the draft “a basis which will require additional work”, reaffirmed that borders cannot be changed by force, and warned that proposed limits on Ukraine’s armed forces could leave the country vulnerable. They also noted that any elements touching the EU or NATO would require the consent of their members.

Next steps have been fixed at official level. National security advisers from the E3 - France, the UK and Germany - will meet EU, US and Ukrainian counterparts in Geneva on Sunday, 23 November, to discuss revisions. A US official said Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll had already arrived, with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio due on Sunday; Italy will also send an official, according to German sources.

The timetable is tight. US President Donald Trump has given Kyiv until Thursday, 27 November, to accept the plan. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on 21 November that Ukraine faces “one of the most difficult moments in our history”, describing a choice between losing dignity or risking the loss of a key partner, while pledging to work constructively with the Americans. Trump said Zelensky “will have to like” the proposal.

Kyiv has confirmed its negotiating line-up. Presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak will lead Ukraine’s team, with consultations beginning in Switzerland over the coming days, according to the National Security and Defence Council. Reuters also reports that further technical work between US and Ukrainian teams is under way.

The US draft seen by Reuters sets out extensive territorial provisions. It would recognise de facto Russian control of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk; freeze front lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia along current contact lines; and require Ukrainian forces to withdraw from parts of Donetsk they still hold, creating a demilitarised buffer zone. Both sides would pledge not to alter these arrangements by force.

The military and security architecture envisaged in the draft is far‑reaching. Ukraine’s armed forces would be capped at 600,000 personnel; Kyiv would enshrine non‑accession to NATO in its constitution and NATO would adopt a policy not to admit Ukraine; NATO troops would not be stationed in Ukraine, while European fighter jets would be based in Poland. A US security guarantee would apply, with conditions that would void it in certain scenarios. Implementation would be overseen by a “Board of Peace” chaired by President Donald J. Trump. The plan also foresees elections within 100 days, a general amnesty for wartime actions, and the phased reintegration of Russia into the global economy, including a path back to the G8 and the staged lifting of sanctions, partly funded by frozen Russian assets.

Moscow has acknowledged receipt of the document. President Vladimir Putin said on 21 November the text could serve as a “basis” for a settlement, while adding that it had not been discussed with the Kremlin in detail and cautioning that Russia would press on militarily if Kyiv refused. He said Russia was prepared to show “flexibility” but would continue fighting if needed.

Several provisions would require separate decisions by European and transatlantic institutions. EU sanctions decisions - including any lifting - are taken by the Council of the EU by unanimity; EU accession treaties require unanimous approval by member states and ratification according to national procedures. NATO decisions are taken by consensus at all levels. Any clauses that purport to bind the EU or NATO would therefore need agreement by all members.

This institutional reality helps explain the G20 statement’s caution on EU and NATO‑related elements and the allied concern over capping Ukraine’s forces. A fixed personnel ceiling at 600,000, combined with a buffer zone and restrictions on NATO policy, would materially shape Kyiv’s medium‑term force design and deterrence posture - a point several European capitals flagged in warning that Ukraine must not be left open to renewed attack.

Attention now shifts to Geneva. European officials say a separate European draft based on the US text has been circulated to Washington and Kyiv. With the 27 November deadline approaching, the immediate diplomatic task is to secure adjustments that align any ceasefire framework with Europe’s stated red lines on sovereignty, territorial integrity and sustainable security guarantees.