The Office for National Statistics has recalibrated recent migration totals after methodological changes, revising net migration for the year ending December 2024 down to 345,000 from the provisional 431,000 previously published. The updated series also shows a higher, earlier peak of 944,000 in the year ending March 2023, compared with the earlier estimate of 906,000 for the year ending June 2023. These revisions are designated as official statistics in development and reflect improved data sources rather than a change in definitions.
The ONS has stopped relying on the International Passenger Survey for any part of its long‑term migration estimates. EU+ flows are now derived from Home Office Borders and Immigration data on actual travel and status, while estimates for British nationals are produced using the Department for Work and Pensions’ Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID). Non‑EU+ estimates continue to use linked Home Office travel and visa records. The statistical authority’s advisory panels endorsed the change, while flagging remaining uncertainties that will be communicated to users.
The largest single change is to British nationals. Using RAPID, the ONS now estimates that in the year ending December 2024 about 257,000 Britons emigrated and 143,000 returned, giving net emigration of 114,000 rather than the previously published 17,000. ONS explains the administrative-data method and the safeguards applied where people temporarily fall out of tax and benefit records (for example those living on savings) to avoid misclassifying residents as emigrants.
EU+ estimates have also been re‑based onto border and visa records. Net migration for EU+ nationals in the year ending December 2024 is now assessed at -69,000, a smaller outflow than the -96,000 previously published. The switch brings EU+ measurement into line with the non‑EU+ approach that already relies on observed travel patterns.
Across the revised back series, ONS reports a cumulative decrease of around 97,000 in net migration between the years ending December 2021 and December 2024 compared with earlier figures. The broad narrative-elevated inflows through 2022 and a sharp fall through 2024-remains intact, but with more emigration captured among British nationals and refined EU+ estimates. Further updates are expected as administrative sources are enhanced.
The drivers of the earlier surge are unchanged in the new series. ONS continues to attribute high 2021–2023 inflows to growth in work visas-especially in health and social care-strong student numbers and humanitarian routes for people from Ukraine, Hong Kong (BN(O)) and Afghanistan, with humanitarian arrivals easing in 2023 from their 2022 peak.
Policy has tightened over the past two years. In December 2023 the then Conservative government announced a five‑point legal migration package: raising the Skilled Worker salary threshold to £38,700, restricting dependants for social care workers and most students, and increasing family route income requirements in stages during 2024–2025. Parliament’s research service and subsequent Home Office notices confirm phased implementation through spring 2024.
The Labour government has since set out wider reforms. On 12 May 2025 ministers published an immigration White Paper signalling an end to new overseas recruitment into social care (with in‑country extensions permitted during a transition), a longer route to settlement and tighter language and skills requirements. On 18 November 2025 the Home Secretary outlined an asylum overhaul in the Commons, describing the current system as “out of control and unfair” and warning that failing to act risks “a path that starts with anger and ends in hatred”.
For planning purposes, officials should note that the recalibration does not materially alter recent totals over 2021–2024 but it does change the composition and timing. Workforce planners will see a bigger net outflow of British nationals than previously captured, while universities and care providers will continue to experience the effects of restrictions introduced from early 2024 and the planned closure of new overseas recruitment into social care. Sector bodies have warned of capacity risks without rapid domestic training expansion.
Small‑boat arrivals sit outside the ONS series but shape the policy context. Home Office time‑series data indicate roughly 39,075 people had crossed the Channel by 13 November 2025, up on the same point in 2024. Weekly operational summaries and the underlying spreadsheet are updated regularly and remain provisional.
While the ONS revisions reduce the 2024 net figure by around a fifth versus the provisional estimate, the series remains labelled as in development. The statistics authority’s panels recommend clear communication of uncertainty and continued work on EU+ and British methods; ONS plans further updates alongside next year’s publications. Users should treat today’s figures as the most reliable to date, but still subject to the established revision cycle.
Politically, both main parties have moved to tighter controls: Conservatives highlight the impact of their 2024 rules; Labour argues further restrictions are necessary alongside enforcement changes. The opposition leader Kemi Badenoch has acknowledged numbers were too high and has signalled a tougher stance; ministers point to falling visa issuances and the new asylum package. The ONS figures provide a more accurate baseline against which those claims will now be judged.