Westminster Policy News & Legislative Analysis

Putin sets Ukraine ceasefire terms, denies intent to attack NATO

Vladimir Putin used his annual ‘Direct Line’ phone‑in and press conference in Moscow to deny that Russia intends to attack European countries and to restate conditions for halting the war in Ukraine. Over more than four hours, he argued there would be no further ‘special military operations’ if Russia were treated ‘with respect’ and its security interests recognised.

He coupled that with a longstanding complaint about NATO enlargement, alleging Western states had ‘cheated’ Moscow. The claim rests on an alleged 1990 assurance to Mikhail Gorbachev that the Alliance would not expand east; Gorbachev later said no such formal promise existed. The Kremlin continues to cite the grievance to justify current policy.

The event was tightly produced but not entirely frictionless. State television said more than three million questions were submitted. A giant map behind the president depicted Russia including occupied parts of Ukraine, among them Crimea. On‑screen messages from viewers criticised internet disruptions and local water quality, with authorities blaming mobile outages on Ukrainian drone attacks.

Domestic pressures featured prominently. With living costs rising and value added tax due to increase from 20% to 22% on 1 January, one message urged the president to “stop the crazy rise in prices”. As he spoke, the Bank of Russia announced it would lower the key interest rate to 16%, presented as part of efforts to steady inflation.

On Ukraine, Putin said he was “ready and willing” to end hostilities “peacefully” but set conditions that Kyiv and its partners have repeatedly rejected. He reiterated demands first outlined in June 2024: Ukrainian forces must withdraw from the four regions Russia claims-Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia-and Kyiv must abandon its bid to join NATO.

Control of the wider Donbas remains central to Moscow’s terms, including areas of Donetsk that Russian forces have not seized, estimated at roughly 23% of the region. He portrayed Russian units as advancing along the front and mocked President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent visit to Kupiansk, which Kyiv used to rebut Russian claims of capture.

Putin also tied any halt in strikes to broader ‘medium‑ and long‑term’ security guarantees for Russia and framed future relations with the United Kingdom, Europe and the United States as possible only “on equal terms”. He suggested Russia would pause bombardment during Ukrainian voting, while again calling for new national elections in Ukraine.

Engagement with Western media was limited but notable. The BBC and NBC were each allotted a question. Asked whether he would share responsibility for further casualties if he rejected proposals associated with US President Donald Trump, Putin praised what he described as Washington’s “sincere” efforts yet argued that the “ball” lay with Kyiv’s “European sponsors”.

Parallel contacts are under way. A Ukrainian delegation was in Miami for talks with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner, with German, French and UK officials also present after meetings in Berlin. Reports indicated Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev was expected in Florida over the weekend. None of the parties has set out agreed parameters.

The information contest extended to maritime trade. Ukraine’s SBU security service said it had struck an oil tanker tied to Russia’s so‑called shadow fleet in the Mediterranean. Putin dismissed the effect, asserting the action would not disrupt Russian exports.

While Putin called suggestions of a future attack on Europe “nonsense”, European security services have warned that Russia could be able to challenge NATO militarily within a few years. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this month that the Kremlin is already stepping up covert activity and that allies must be prepared for war, reinforcing deterrence and resilience.

Policy Wire analysis: The terms set out by Moscow would require Ukraine to cede territory and renounce NATO membership-positions repeatedly rejected by Kyiv and its partners. For the UK and EU, the remarks point to a prolonged period of military and financial support to Ukraine, tighter enforcement against sanctions evasion networks, and continued vigilance against Russian covert operations, even as ad hoc diplomatic contacts continue.

The broadcast closed on lighter themes, with quickfire questions on friendship, religion and ‘love at first sight’. Putin replied that he believed in it and added that he was “in love”, offering no further detail. The choreography underscored dual objectives: signalling abroad while managing domestic expectations during wartime and ahead of fiscal tightening.