One week after the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in joint US–Israeli strikes on 28 February 2026, US President Donald Trump has moved from ambiguity to explicit objectives. He now says Washington should have a direct role in deciding who governs in Tehran, linking political conditions to ongoing military pressure.
In a 5 March interview with Axios, the president stated: “I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodríguez] in Venezuela,” adding that Mojtaba Khamenei-the late leader’s 56‑year‑old son-is “unacceptable” and that the US wants “someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran”. The comments were repeated across outlets including Reuters and Yahoo News.
On 6 March he posted that only Iran’s “unconditional surrender” would end hostilities and that a “GREAT AND ACCEPTABLE” leader would follow-phrasing recorded by Euronews and IranWire from Truth Social. Days earlier he told Axios he had several “off‑ramps” for the campaign, ranging from a brief operation to a longer confrontation.
Iran’s succession process is set out in law. Under Article 111 of the constitution, an Interim Leadership Council comprising the president, the chief justice and a Guardian Council cleric assumes the Leader’s duties until the Assembly of Experts-an 88‑member clerical body-selects a successor. Al Jazeera and state outlets reported on 1 March that President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam‑Hossein Mohseni‑Eje’i and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi are serving as the interim trio.
Since the 1989 constitutional amendments, the Assembly is required to appoint a single supreme leader; the prior option of a standing “leadership council” was removed. The Middle East Institute and the Constitute Project’s English text both set out that constraint, meaning speculation about a collective leadership is inconsistent with the current constitutional text.
The security backdrop is shaping these choices. AP and other outlets reported continued US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military and command targets after Khamenei’s death, while Iranian retaliation has targeted Israel and US positions in the region. Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said on 4 March that any successor would be “an unequivocal target for elimination”.
Local and regional media, including Tasnim, L’Orient‑Le Jour and Israel Hayom, reported on 3 March that strikes hit buildings in Qom and Tehran associated with the Assembly of Experts. Accounts vary on whether members were meeting at the time; several reports suggest contingency arrangements, including virtual sessions, to keep deliberations moving amid the bombardment.
Attention has focused on Mojtaba Khamenei, long discussed as a contender given his ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Reuters and AP profiles note he has not held elected office and lacks publicly established senior clerical rank, a factor that could complicate acceptance within Qom’s seminaries.
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, already appointed as the council’s clerical member, features prominently in succession analysis owing to his roles across the seminaries and on the Guardian Council and Assembly of Experts. Hassan Khomeini, the founder’s grandson, is often cited as a relative moderate but has previously been barred from standing for the Assembly of Experts, limiting his immediate prospects, according to RFE/RL and The National.
Iranian authorities have rejected foreign commentary on the appointment. Statements carried by Mehr and Tasnim described talk of US involvement as interference in internal affairs, insisting the choice rests solely with constitutional bodies.
Historical memory sharpens that response. The 1953 coup that overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh-backed by the CIA and MI6-remains a touchstone; declassified documents and reporting by AP, Britannica and The Guardian detail the external role. Any hint of orchestration in 2026 would be likely to meet cross‑factional resistance.
The comparison repeatedly drawn by the US president is Venezuela. On 3 January US forces captured Nicolás Maduro; Vice‑President Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as acting president, a transition documented by AP and CBS. Since then, US officials have engaged Caracas while Rodríguez has announced concessions including an amnesty bill. Iran’s system, with layered clerical and security oversight, is structurally different, and the Assembly of Experts retains the formal mandate.
Markets are already reflecting the uncertainty. Brent crude traded between the high‑$70s and above $90 per barrel this week, with Reuters, Forbes and Axios noting the spike alongside shipping disruption in and around the Strait of Hormuz. For energy users and treasury teams, near‑term scenarios should assume higher input costs and tighter insurance conditions.
Mehdi Khalaji of the Washington Institute told the BBC that Mojtaba Khamenei is closely aligned with the IRGC but lacks broad clerical backing; he noted that an interim council assertion of authority over war and peace implies the succession is yet to be finalised. His assessment tracks with the balance of open‑source reporting.
In the coming days, watch for signals from the Assembly of Experts on timing and format of its vote, and whether a formal announcement is delayed due to the ongoing threat environment. Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender” and Israel’s stated intent to target any successor add additional uncertainty to the pace-and publicity-of the decision.