Westminster Policy News & Legislative Analysis

UK and France lead coalition on Ukraine ceasefire and sanctions

Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron co‑chaired a virtual meeting of the Coalition of the Willing on 24 October 2025, joined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The chairs’ statement stressed sustained backing through winter and a push for a just, lasting peace.

Leaders recorded President Zelenskyy’s support for a full, unconditional ceasefire and contrasted it with Moscow’s rejection and continued strikes on civilians and infrastructure, including what they described as reckless breaches of NATO airspace. They also endorsed President Trump’s view that the current line of contact should be the starting point for any talks, while restating Ukraine’s sovereignty and the principle that borders cannot be changed by force.

Economic pressure will intensify. The coalition resolved to take further steps to remove Russian oil and gas from global markets, end remaining imports into their territories, and deter third countries from trading in Russian energy-welcoming recent U.S. action toward that aim.

Maritime enforcement featured prominently. Leaders agreed additional measures against the so‑called shadow fleet, citing risks to the marine environment and national security. The package includes further sanctions, discouraging engagement by third countries, enhanced information‑sharing, and readiness to use regulatory and interdiction powers, backed by closer coordination.

On financing, participants signalled intent to meet Ukraine’s budget needs in 2026–2027 and to explore options to use the full value of immobilised Russian sovereign assets. They were explicit that this would be in addition to existing bilateral military aid, not a substitute.

The statement strongly condemned Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure. Partners committed urgent assistance to protect and rebuild power assets and confirmed ongoing military support with emphasis on air defence.

For post‑war security, leaders confirmed plans to deploy a Multinational Force Ukraine once hostilities have ceased, with tasks focused on securing skies and seas and helping to regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces. This aligns with earlier signals that a reassurance force could follow a ceasefire.

Analysis: For sanctions and shipping compliance leads, the combined push to remove Russian energy from markets and pursue the shadow fleet points to tighter due diligence on vessel ownership, flagging histories and ship‑to‑ship transfers, alongside more assertive use of port‑state, flag‑state and insurance restrictions.

Analysis: On public finance and reconstruction, exploring the ‘full value’ of immobilised sovereign assets implies legal and operational design work through 2026–2027, while ring‑fencing ongoing military aid. For defence planners, advance notice of a multinational reassurance force serves as a signalling device ahead of any ceasefire invitation from Kyiv.