Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said 281 people have been returned to France under the UK-France "one in, one out" pilot since its launch. Over the same period, 350 individuals entered the UK via the approved route, according to figures given to LBC and confirmed by the Home Office. Officials attributed the gap to an operational problem in France that grounded one removal flight, and said forthcoming flights are expected to realign the totals.
Under the bilateral arrangement, each person removed to France after arriving irregularly by small boat is matched by the transfer to the UK of one person with a strong asylum case already in France. Ministers say the model offers a lawful alternative and is intended to deter Channel crossings by signalling that irregular arrivals face return.
The Home Office says people who cross the Channel irregularly can be detained on arrival. Within roughly two weeks, UK and French authorities aim to agree the return, after which removals are scheduled by air. Casework and custody capacity determine how quickly individuals can be held, processed and boarded.
Volumes remain modest against overall flows. Official figures for 2025 record 41,472 small-boat arrivals, around 5,000 more than in 2024 and the highest annual total since 2022, when nearly 46,000 people crossed. The pilot’s numbers therefore represent a small share of the cohort.
The scheme began in September 2025 with limited throughput. By October 2025, France had accepted 26 returns while the UK had admitted 18 people via the safe route. The monthly totals have risen since, though they continue to fluctuate.
Mahmood defended the approach, acknowledging that removals are still at a relatively low level and citing practical limits around detention and flight scheduling. She said awareness of the safe route in France was initially weak, making it difficult to identify eligible candidates, but communications have since been strengthened to counter organised immigration crime.
Downing Street also emphasised that the numbers will vary over time. Officials said that, in the early phase, the UK returned more people to France than it received under the route, but that variations are expected as casework and travel operations normalise.
For enforcement teams, delivery depends on detention space, rapid casework decisions and reliable charter capacity. A single cancelled aircraft can disrupt the one-for-one balance for several weeks, requiring close coordination with French counterparts to sequence flights.
For asylum operations, the safe route transfers add a small but predictable inflow that needs planning for accommodation and support. Officials will monitor whether consistent removals, matched by managed admissions, reduce small-boat demand and keep processing times within legal limits.