The Ministry of Justice has published new capacity projections alongside its Annual Statement on Prison Capacity 2025, confirming that without the Sentencing Act 2026 the estate would have exceeded supply by June 2026. The legislation received Royal Assent on 22 January; officials say the package averts a summer shortfall and puts planning on a statutory footing. Applies to England and Wales. (gov.uk)
Deputy Prime Minister and Lord Chancellor David Lammy presented the reforms as part of a wider Plan for Change to protect the public and ensure courts can continue to pass immediate custody when needed. The government’s press notice, published on 29 January, frames the new law and capacity plan as decisive steps to avoid operational failure across police, courts and prisons. (gov.uk)
Official figures in the Annual Statement set out the pressure points: the estate has operated above 95% occupancy for over 12 years, with fewer than 100 spaces available in the adult male estate at one point in 2024. As of late September 2025 the adult population stood at around 87,000 against a usable operational capacity of 88,931. (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk)
The Sentencing Act 2026 takes forward recommendations from the Independent Sentencing Review, including a presumption to suspend custodial sentences of 12 months or less, a new earned‑progression model for standard determinate sentences with a minimum release point of one third, and a judicial finding of domestic abuse to strengthen victim protection. The Act complements an expansion of electronic monitoring and new ‘restriction zones’ to manage risk in the community. (gov.uk)
On recall, the government will move most standard determinate sentence offenders to a single 56‑day fixed recall period, replacing shorter fixed recalls and the routine use of standard recall. High‑risk cohorts, including MAPPA level 2/3 and terrorism cases, are excluded. MoJ says this gives probation time to prepare safe re‑release plans while maintaining public protection. (gov.uk)
The Ministry’s central projection now shows supply keeping pace with demand once the Act’s measures are applied; without them, demand would outstrip places by June 2026. The department estimates the reforms will reduce the projected prison population by around 7,500 by February 2028, though pressures remain in higher‑growth scenarios. (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk)
Capacity growth is anchored in a £7 billion programme delivering 14,000 additional places by 2031. Since July 2024 the government reports c.2,900 places delivered, including HMP Millsike in Yorkshire (~1,500 places) and a new houseblock at HMP Fosse Way (~250 places), with more than 5,000 further places under construction. (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk)
Planning and delivery reforms are intended to accelerate build timelines. The Annual Statement cites use of a Crown Development Route and changes to the National Planning Policy Framework to streamline nationally significant prison infrastructure. On this basis, total usable capacity is projected to reach roughly 98,900 by November 2032, subject to delivery risks. (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk)
The policy package is paired with investment in supervision. MoJ commits up to £700 million additional probation and community services funding by 2028–29 versus 2025–26 to support intensive supervision under the progression model, expanded tagging, and the reformed recall framework. (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk)
Transitional measures remain in force until commencement. Guidance confirms the temporary SDS40 policy introduced in September 2024-allowing eligible standard determinate prisoners to be released at 40% rather than 50%-continues to operate pending rollout of the progression model; earlier emergency ECSL releases were deactivated when SDS40 began. (gov.uk)
Transparency is now embedded in statute. The Sentencing Act 2026 places a duty on ministers to lay an Annual Statement on Prison Capacity before Parliament. The 2025 statement, presented as Command Paper CP 1494 on 29 January, consolidates projections for demand, supply, staffing and probation capacity for the year ahead. (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk)