Arctic air has moved across the UK, pushing temperatures 3–6°C below the mid‑November average and introducing a risk of snow and ice. The Met Office has issued yellow warnings for snow and ice across Scotland and northern England on Tuesday, while the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has yellow and amber cold‑health alerts in parts of England through Friday morning. Conditions are expected to ease later in the week as milder Atlantic air returns.
What the health alerts mean is central to planning. Under UKHSA’s Cold‑Health Alerting system, yellow indicates increased risks for people already vulnerable to cold, with action expected from health and care providers. Amber signals wider system pressure with potential population‑level risk and a need for coordinated response across sectors, aligned to Met Office severe weather warnings where necessary. Red, not in force here, would indicate an emergency with risk to life for everyone. These levels are set using a joint impact‑likelihood assessment with the Met Office.
Met Office colours describe risk, not just weather type. Yellow warnings flag a range of lower‑to‑medium impacts or lower confidence in more severe outcomes; amber denotes higher likelihood of significant impacts that could disrupt travel, utilities and services; red is reserved for rare, dangerous events. Users should check the impact‑likelihood matrix in each specific warning for local detail.
Through Monday night into Tuesday, rain spreading south and east is expected to fall as snow in places where air is cold enough. For northern and eastern Scotland, a yellow snow warning runs 03:00–18:00 GMT Tuesday, with 5–10 cm possible above roughly 400 m and 2–5 cm even at some lower levels. Higher routes could become impassable and rail journeys may be disrupted. Hill snow is also possible for the North Pennines and North York Moors during the day.
Ice is an additional hazard. Yellow ice warnings cover northern and eastern Scotland from 19:00 Monday to 10:00 GMT Tuesday, with a separate ice warning from 05:00–12:00 GMT Tuesday for central Scotland into northern England. Further frequent and occasionally heavy snow showers are likely to reach northern Scotland Tuesday night and persist to Thursday, bringing 2–5 cm at low levels and 15–20 cm above about 300 m, with gusty winds and occasional lightning reducing visibility.
On Wednesday, the northerly flow is expected to drive snow showers mainly into northern Scotland but at times reaching Northern Ireland, eastern England, west Wales and the moors of southwest England. Some showers could be heavy with isolated ‘thundersnow’. A separate Met Office yellow warning for snow and ice is in force for coastal eastern England from 06:00 GMT Wednesday to 18:00 Thursday, where repetitive showers off the North Sea could lay 2–5 cm at low levels and up to 20 cm over high ground above 300 m.
The cold will be most acute mid‑week. Daytime temperatures around 2–5°C will feel several degrees lower in the wind on Wednesday. Overnight frost and ice risks persist where showers fall, and Thursday night looks the coldest period, with sub‑zero temperatures widely and rural Scotland potentially near −12°C. Friday should start bright but still cold before a gradual trend to less cold, cloudier and damp conditions from the west. By Saturday, values are forecast to climb closer to seasonal norms.
For services, the UKHSA alerts are a trigger for action rather than observation. Providers are advised to identify and proactively contact high‑risk patients, coordinate with local authorities and voluntary groups, and ensure continuity for essentials such as home visits, oxygen deliveries and repeat prescriptions. Communications should explain risks plainly to older people, those with cardiovascular or respiratory disease, and anyone facing prolonged exposure to cold, including people sleeping rough.
For the public, yellow does not mean “nothing to do” if you or those you support are at higher risk. Official advice is to heat rooms you use most-such as the living room and bedroom-to at least 18°C, keep bedroom windows closed at night, dress in layers, and maintain regular hot meals and drinks. These measures reduce the risk of exacerbations, infections and cold‑related illness.
Policy Wire analysis: the combination of Met Office warnings and UKHSA amber alerts in northern England (North East, North West, Yorkshire and the Humber) points to short‑term service pressure across urgent and community care, with likely spikes in NHS 111 calls, respiratory presentations and falls. Local resilience forums and integrated care systems should use the warning matrices to align gritting, transport updates, hospital discharge planning and outreach to vulnerable households. As Atlantic systems move in, attention shifts from snow and ice back to damp and wind‑chill; however, cold‑health risks will persist where indoor temperatures remain low.